Pakistan’s Role in Afghanistan
Pakistan serves as a pathway to Afghanistan. It shares geography, culture, language, and history with Afghanistan. Forty-two percent Pashtoon population in Afghanistan has a sentimental attachment with seventeen percent Pashtoon population of Pakistan. Pakistan has always had good relations with the de facto Taliban government in Afghanistan. Without Pakistan’s help, the US could have never defeated the Soviets in Afghanistan. Even today, the US and other stakeholders fully acknowledge Pakistan’s role in ending the two-decades-long war in Afghanistan.
The following factors will highlight the role of Pakistan in Afghanistan:
First; Pakistan is the most important actor in the whole Afghan Peace Process. It has been a party to almost every significant peace talk between the US, Taliban, the Afghan government, and other regional powers. At present, Pakistan’s active role in Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism (QCCM), Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG), and Doha Peace Talks is a clear manifestation of Pakistan’s importance. In December 2019, Pakistan encouraged both parties (Taliban and the US) to resume the peace process in Doha. Additionally, in the same year, Pakistan’s participation in Moscow Talks and Bhurban Talks further shows that the country enjoys a pivotal role in facilitating the Afghan Peace Process.
Second; the China-Pakistan partnership is reshaping the geopolitics of the region. Being allied in various economic, strategic, and defense agreements, the Pak-China Nexus has become unprecedently strong. In the recent past, China showed its keen interest in Afghanistan because Beijing wants to fill the power vacuum after Washington’s retreat, and it also has exclusive economic interests in war-torn Afghanistan. Chinese aid has subsequently increased in recent years and it also wants to incorporate Afghanistan in Belt and Road Initiative. However, the major spoiler is the uncertainty that prevails in China- Afghan relations. China’s biggest concern is the spread of three evils from Afghan soil namely terrorism, extremism, and separatism. Therefore, China is promoting joint military actions with the Afghan forces, fortifying its western borders, and pushing Pakistan to resist IS Khorasan, Al-Qaeda, ETIM, and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi. It is for these purposes, China feels the need to have more involvement in Afghanistan with the help of Pakistan. In 2018, President Xi Jinping also resuscitated the dormant Afghan Contact Group under the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) so that he could formally involve his regional allies in dealing with the Afghan issue. Pakistan will remain likely to buttress China’s interests in Afghanistan; thus, its role in Afghanistan through China is also decisive.
Third; Pakistan-Taliban relations is another decisive factor in determining the future of Afghanistan. Pakistan supported the Taliban government in Afghanistan during the period 1996–2001 against the Northern Alliance when no other nation stood with the Taliban. The Taliban are predominantly the Sunni Pashtoon group that have historically sought assistance from Islamabad. They explicitly reject the de jure government of Dr. Ashraf Ghani in Afghanistan and want to rule the country alone according to a purely Islamic constitution. The Taliban even try to sideline Ghani’s government from the peace talks as they call it a puppet in the hands of Washington. Young Taliban want to see no American involvement in Afghanistan as well as removal from the UN’s list of terrorist groups. They are inclined towards the Pakistan government to further their demands in front of the international community. As established earlier, the Taliban are Pashtoons that are forty-two percent of the total Afghanistan population. Uzbeks, Hazara, Tajiks, and other ethnic groups challenge Pashtoon authority in Afghanistan and are likely to resist the Taliban government in the future. This also compels the Taliban to seek support from other state-actors especially Pakistan so that they could dominate Afghan politics. Similarly, a legitimate Taliban Government in Afghanistan also suits Pakistan that has not-so-good relations with Ghani’s government. Nonetheless, Pakistan, despite having a strategic partnership with the Taliban, somehow worries about those Taliban allied militant groups that are hostile towards Pakistan and China as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM), Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan, etc.
Fourth; Pakistan-US relations saw a downward trajectory when Trump came in power due to a number of reasons. Pakistan has a number of grievances against the US and now, it sees the latter through the lens of suspicion and distrust. At present, the relations are based solely upon expediency and prudence. The US knows that the help of Pakistan is ineluctable for restoring peace in Afghanistan. On the other hand, Pakistan feels that it has been betrayed by the US on various occasions. Washington’s apathy towards Indian aggression and expansion in the region perturbs Pakistan the most. Still, it cannot consider going against the will of the superpower. Thus, Islamabad is showing its willingness to cooperate with the US for restoring peace in Afghanistan and is already facilitating the whole peace process.
Fifth; owing to American thuggery in the region, nations like Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan are very allergic to American involvement in the region. Central Asian Republics (CARs) are largely Russian Sphere of influence. Russia and China, on the other hand, are already competitors for America. Resultantly, a new strategic bloc is evolving in Afghanistan where all these nations are supporting the Taliban. Moscow is already supplying military aid to the Taliban fighters. Tehran wants the American troops to suffer in the Afghan Quagmire. Pakistan wants to have a better bargaining position and is continuously moving towards China for economic and strategic support. Thus, Anti-American sentiments in the region also shape the geopolitics of Afghanistan and give Pakistan clear leverage in this issue.
In conclusion, it is reiterated that the role of Pakistan in Afghanistan is decisive like never before. The Taliban are not at all stepping backward. They fought against the superpowers for decades and are still undefeatable. It is as clear as the sky that no one can now rule Afghanistan without the consent of the Taliban who have amicable relations with the Pakistan government. The interests of Moscow, Tehran, Islamabad, and Beijing regarding Afghanistan converge on various factors. Washington has largely lost its position and is finding a safe and honorable exit from Afghanistan. It looks like a turning point in the history of Afghanistan because if a reliable peace deal is agreed, Afghanistan will become a free, independent, and anti-American nation in the region.
